PARETO — AION Energy Atlas

λ0.50Balanced

Merit-Order + CVaR-LP ThermBD: 12.0 MU ISGS↓: 23.2 MU

EXPECTED COST

₹lakh/day

VaR (95%)

₹lakh/day

CVaR (95%)

₹lakh/day

OD RISK

UD RISK

AVG DSM PENALTY

₹lakh/day

OD+UD deviation charges

GEN COST

₹lakh/day

DEFICIT BUY

MU/day

Must buy · demand > supply ceiling

ECON BUY

MU/day

Market < gen VC · cost substitution

MUST SELL

MU/day

Surplus at tech-min

ECON SELL

MU/day

Price > VC + txn

Block decisions: |

Cost Distribution

Histogram · Shaded tail = VaR exceedance

table_rowsTABLE

Cost Breakdown

Average across scenarios

Optimized Dispatch — Median

Stacked supply · Dashed = demand

table_rowsTABLE

Data Sources

Configure data inputs for risk simulation

TODAY’S DISPATCH

Dataset	Shape	Daily	Endpoint
boltDemand Forecast	96 blocks	322.96 MU	/atlas/forecast
wb_sunnySolar Forecast	96 blocks	35.16 MU	/atlas/forecast
event_noteUnit Schedule	96 × 6	—	/atlas/schedule
equalizerDeclared Capacity	96 × 3	—	/atlas/dc
sync_altSTOA/Bilateral	96 blocks	27.30 MU	/atlas/schedule
attach_moneyPrice Forecasts	5mkts×96	DAM/DAC/RTM/TAM/GTAM	/atlas/market
precision_manufacturingUnit Specs	24 units	—	/atlas/fleet

HISTORICAL — FORECAST vs ACTUAL (for scenario generation)

LOOKBACK days (min 30)

22-Nov-2025 → 17-Feb-2026

Variable	Forecast	Actual	Shape	Endpoint
boltDemand	✓	✓	96×73d	/atlas/history
wb_sunnySolar	✓	✓	96×73d	/atlas/history
airWind	✓	✓	96×73d	/atlas/history

DERIVED (computed server-side from above)

Demand Residuals

residual_t,d = actual_t,d − forecast_t,d

96 blocks × 73d · MAPE 3.7%

Solar Residuals

residual_t,d = actual_t,d − forecast_t,d

96 blocks × 73d · MAPE 28.8%

Wind Residuals

residual_t,d = actual_t,d − forecast_t,d

96 blocks × 73d · MAPE 30.2%

info Backend computes block-wise residuals from forecast−actual pairs. 73 days of KPTCL data feeds the Monte Carlo scenario generator (2,000 scenarios). Minimum 30 days required for stable covariance estimation.

tune Constraints

Dispatch constraints · Re-run to apply

bolt▾ GENERATION

3 params

Hydel BudgetDaily hydel energy capMU

Thermal Min %Tech minimum load%

Txn CostMarket trade cost₹/kWh

payments▸ GEN COSTS

5 params

water_drop▸ SEASONAL CONSTRAINTS

0 active

verified▸ SLA CONSTRAINTS

0 active

electrical_services▸ NETWORK CONSTRAINTS

0 active

account_balance▸ MARKET BUDGET

7 params

eco▾ RPO & REC

6 params

Financial YearMoP RPO trajectory

RPO TARGETS (% of consumption)

Wind RPO%

Hydro (HPO)%

Distributed RE%

Other (Solar+)%

Total RPO33.01%

REC & GDAM SELL LOGIC

REC ValueOpportunity cost of foregoing REC when selling in GDAM₹/kWh

RPO ComplianceIs state already RPO-surplus?

✅ Karnataka is RPO-surplus (RE ~52% vs 33% target).
GDAM sell rule: if GDAM−DAM > REC cost (₹0.37/kWh), sell in GDAM — the premium exceeds the certificate value you forego.

gavel▸ DSM REGULATION

CERC 4th Amendment

ssid_chart▸ FORECAST ERROR

2 params

Changes applied on RE-OPTIMIZE

summarize Risk Summary

Consolidated view · 2,000 scenarios · λ=0.50 · 17-Feb-2026

COST RISK

Expected Cost (μ)
Std Dev (σ)
VaR (95%)
CVaR (95%)
Min / Max		Full range

DEVIATION RISK

OD Risk		Demand↑ + RE↓ (>150 MW)
UD Risk		Demand↓ + RE↑ (>150 MW)
Avg OD Volume		Over-drawal energy
Avg UD Volume		Under-drawal energy
Avg DSM Penalty		CERC slab charges

GENERATION

Gen Fixed Cost (sunk)		Capacity charges
Gen Variable Cost		VC × MWh
Gen Total		FC + VC

MARKET DECISIONS

Must Sell		Surplus at tech-min
Econ Sell (DAM)		Sell where GDAM prem < REC value
Econ Sell (GDAM)		Sell where GDAM prem > REC value
Deficit Buy		Deficit at max utilization
Econ Buy (DAM)		Buy where GDAM prem > REC value
Econ Buy (GDAM)		Buy where GDAM prem < REC value (earn REC)

RPO COMPLIANCE

Solar RPO		Target: loading...
Non-Solar RPO		Target: loading...
Combined RPO		Target: loading...
GDAM Buy Vol		REC-aware: prem < REC → buy GDAM
GDAM Sell Vol		RPO surplus: prem > REC → sell GDAM
GDAM Premium	₹0.3/kWh avg	vs DAM ₹3.9/kWh
REC Value	₹0.37/kWh	IEX clearing ~₹350-370/MWh
REC Inventory	2,400 certs	Carry-forward surplus
GDAM Sell Rule	—	GDAM−DAM > REC cost?

BUDGET ALLOCATION